The Friday#: Predicting the Oscars + Snifter.

This Week’s Issue:The Sizzle: Nokia’s return? The Fri-Up: Oscars. The Sauce: Snifter.Your weekly round-up of the hottest stories worldwide, served with a slice of topical social media analysis and a dollop of Friday fun.

The Fri-Up: Predicting the Oscars.

 

It’s that time again, the first light in the dimness of January. Tinseltown turns its lights on as the Oscar nominations are revealed. We’ve been tracking them in Brandwatch for several years but we’ve never yet looked at the rise of the nominations before the announcement.

This time, we take a look at the groundswell for the awards through Brandwatch in the month running up to the nominations. Also we look at whether or not Brandwatch could have predicted the nominees based on public opinion. This is just the beginning and we will, of course, continue to track the Oscars and red carpet hopefuls in the run up to the ceremony on February 24th.

Fig 1. History graph of mentions relating to Academy Awards/Oscars from 01/11/12 – 10/01/13.

Unsurprisingly, there is some early discussion, but nothing notable until December 3rd when an award shortlist unveiled 15 films in the running for the best documentary feature award. The next time there is any significant chat is the announcement of the nominations yesterday (January 10th).

Fig 2. Page type by hour for the 24 hours before and after the nominations announcement.

 

As we head in closer to the nominations announcement, looking at page type hour by hour, we see that dedicated forums lead the way in speculation. As soon as the nominations are revealed, Twitter buzz leads, followed by news. A tip for the gamblers amongst you – head to the forums for early indications from those in the know.

Finally we take a look at how savvy social media users are at predicting the nominees.

Fig 3. Top ten films based on discussion across social media.

The graph above shows which films were most frequently predicted to be nominated by social media users. When compared with the shortlist, Brandwatch predicts pretty well.

Conclusion: A-listers – take a look at our stats before rehearsing your incredulous winning vs graceful losing pose for the cameras. Here are a few unprepared losers who clearly didn’t check Brandwatch.

The Sauce:

Something for the weekend:

Hope you enjoyed the Friday#, have a great weekend.