General Election 2019: Qriously Prediction, Plus Survey and Social Data Analysis

Delving deeper: Leaders and issues

Our survey collected a lot more data than just which parties people were planning to vote for.

For example, we were able to look at the issues those intending to vote cared about most.

While many dubbed this General Election ‘The Brexit Election,’ many people see the NHS as a larger issue for the country. In the chart below, you can also see the different priority levels Labour and Conservative voters place on issues like immigration and climate change.

We also studied perception of the party leaders, asking voters who would be the best leader for the country.

The results show how Jeremy Corbyn has failed to capture the confidence of his own party voters – a sizeable percentage of the Labour voters we questioned didn’t select him as the best leader.

Voters planning to support the Liberal Democrats are also not overly keen on the prospect of Corbyn as Prime Minister, which may make them less likely to make a last minute decision to vote tactically for Labour.

If you’re a journalist looking to cover our data, email [email protected] with any queries.

Breaking down social conversation

Brandwatch’s React team also gathered data on the General Election, looking specifically at social media conversations. Using Brandwatch Consumer Research, they crunched the social data over one month, from November 4 to December 4.

The Conservative party on social

Key topics:

• Brexit
• The NHS
• Chief Rabbi Ephraim Mirvis’ criticism of Labour in The Sunday Times

Looking at gender-categorized authors, Conservative conversation online is 65% male, and 35% female.

The Labour party on social

Key topics:

• Public services – the NHS, fire services, and education
• Families
• Public transport and infrastructure
• Real living wage
• Investment in STEM and farming.

Looking at gender-categorized authors, 64% of Labour interaction is from men online, compared to 36% from women.

The Liberal Democrats on social

Key topics:

• Public services – particularly mental health investment
• Climate crisis
• Public infrastructure investment

Looking at gender-categorized authors, Liberal Democrat conversation is 31% female, 69% male.

The Green party on social

Key issues:

• Climate crisis
• Public service
• Public infrastructure investment

Looking at gender-categorized authors, the Green party’s conversation online is 64% male, and 36% female.

The Brexit Party on social

Key issues:

• Brexit
• Public services – NHS and fire services
• Business

Looking at gender-categorized authors, Brexit party conversation is 70% male and 30% female.

The SNP on social

Key issues:

• Public services – education and the NHS
• Stopping austerity
• Stop to brexit & independence referendum two
• Climate crisis

Looking at gender-categorized authors, conversation about the SNP is 62% male and 38% female.

The DUP on social

Key issues:

• Public services
• Climate crisis
• Investment in public infrastructure

Looking at gender-categorized authors, the conversation about the DUP online is 70% male and 30% female.

Celebrity endorsements

Labour – traditionally seen as the party for the people, and the key holders for the youth vote – have fared extremely well with celebrity endorsements in this election.

Even though some of these people can’t vote in the UK (look out for the ‘*’ in the list), they’re keen to show their support.