US Election 2020: The Impact of the Second Presidential Debate
By Kellan TerryOct 23
Combining high-quality mobile survey technology, a robust polling methodology, and expert data analysis,
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Published March 10th 2017
If we learned anything from last year, it was that nothing is certain.
That didn’t stop thousands of people placing high-stakes bets on high-stakes political outcomes, though. We’re not referring to a fellow real estate tycoon that won over a million dollars betting on a Trump victory, but the people who tweeted about what they’d do if Trump was victorious.
We took a look at tweeted mentions of “If Donald Trump becomes President I’ll ___” (and variations on that term – I will, Ill, if @realdonaldtrump wins, if Trump wins etc) back to the beginning of March last year and up to the day before the 9th of November election.
We excluded retweets to see if we could quantify some of the personal bets people were placing. While many retweeted the “if Trump becomes president” tweets, they weren’t placing bets by extension. (Of course, not everyone who wrote the original tweets were serious – at least we hope not).
It’s not all anti-Trump, either – we found many people saying that if Trump became President they’d celebrate, or that they’d do something positive like quit smoking in order to appease the election gods…
Armed with thousands of tweets and our trusty Excel skills, we found the most common verbs that followed the phrase “If Trump/Donald Trump/realdonaldtrump/DonaldTrump wins/becomes President I will/I’ll/Ill ______”
We thought we’d break down some of our favorites.
“I’ll move” was undoubtedly a popular option, and Canada appeared to be the top destination.
As Trump’s victory was announced, the Canadian immigration website crashed as visitors flooded the site. However, there’s no concrete evidence yet of mass movement to the country.
Celebrities, too, pledged to leave the USA for different countries if Trump was victorious. Others, however, wanted to go further afield.
— free“ (@sicksofniall) November 8, 2016
Of all the “if Trump wins” bets this seemed to be the most believable. As we all know, many tears were shed.
But not everyone was crying tears of sorrow.
I SWEAR IF TRUMP WINS, I WILL CRY, I WILL BE SO HAPPY!! I DON'T KNOW WHETHER TO DRINK OR EAT!!
— UNORDAINED ROCK BAND (@lisamariewhite4) November 9, 2016
Whatever happened, rivers of tears were going to flow.
if Hillary wins i'll cry out of relief… if trump wins i'll cry out of fear
— lil' jas? (@vajazzleejaz) November 4, 2016
Before the result was even announced people were spouting who they’d blame for a Trump victory. If you’re looking for a taste of the anger that many felt at the thought of him becoming President, a quick scroll through these tweets will probably help.
If anything, this tangled mess of emotive tweets goes to show that there’s no one reason that can be attributed to a Trump victory.
For some reason, a Trump victory would mark the start of many a strange diet.
Margaret Wente claimed she would eat her column.
We certainly hope this didn’t happen.
IF TRUMP WINS ILL FUCKING EAT MENTOS AND DRINK COKE
— bye bye lil sebastian (@sweetkissesdean) November 9, 2016
“Paypal” isn’t usually considered a verb, but that’s how many people were using the word in the lead up to election night. We don’t imagine many of these were legitimate.
if Trump wins I'll PayPal everyone that RTs this $100
— Y (@YAHlRMATA) November 9, 2016
Many of the mentions were people joking about the number of money offers, however. In fact, @YAHIRMATA was one of them.
Perhaps Trump’s famous head of hair taking residence in the White House was too much for these tweeters, because we found a lot of people saying they were going to shave themselves if Trump became President.
It’s an interesting reaction, but in these confusing times everyone has their own way of dealing with things.
If Trump wins I'll shave my head
— Nicholas Mitchell (@fat_guy_swag) November 9, 2016
There were even a few double-whammies.
If trump wins I'll shave my beard and eat it. I'll stream it live too
— W’HORECHATA (@Yamscasino) October 13, 2016
If Trump wins I'll shave my beard, head and move to Barcelona!
— ricardo contreras (@rich_acoustic) November 9, 2016
Are you a journalist looking to cover our data? We have plenty more! Email us at [email protected] for more information.
Combining high-quality mobile survey technology, a robust polling methodology, and expert data analysis, our bulletins will be essential reading to get the pulse of the nation.