In the US, the 2020 data follows a trend we’re all familiar with by now. Driving dropped off steeply in March as the pandemic was declared, and then recovered as we moved into summer.

Levels dropped off again as temperatures dropped and Covid-19 cases increased in many places. Aside from jumps around Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays, this decrease continued until the end of the year.

Which brings us to 2021, where we can see roads are getting busy again. By early March levels were at the same point as they were in the previous year, and have continued to rise since. We’re already seeing levels equal to the summer of 2020 and, unless anything disrupts them, they’ll be expected to rise as we get deeper into the year.

All in all, for auto manufacturers hoping to increase sales in the US, things are on the right track. Or road, even.

In Japan we see a similar picture as in the US, but with a couple of notable differences. First, you might be wondering what the three peaks you see in 2020 are.

The one at the end of March (that we also see in this year’s data) is due to the blooming of cherry blossom trees. This spring event inspires droves of people to travel to see the trees bloom, with Covid failing to stop people in both the years we looked at.

The peaks you see later in the year coincide with national holidays, such as Mountain Day which was introduced in 2014 to encourage people to go and see some mountains. Unsurprisingly, many people drive to do this.

The other big difference is that the fall in driving levels was far less severe in Japan compared to the US. Their lowest level compared to 13 January 2020 was -30%. In the US driving levels dropped down to -47%.

Looking at 2021, we can see driving levels begin to fall again, although this is just the other side of the cherry blossom peak. But Japan is experiencing another rise in cases at this moment, so it’s hard to predict how things will look in the coming months.

With a quick hop over to Europe, we can see how things are in Germany. This time we have a very different picture. In 2020, things looked very similar to the US, except their winter drop was far more severe. By the end of the year, they were way below 13 January 2020 levels.

Heading into 2021, while things have improved, they’re still not looking great. After a steep rise throughout March, levels have pretty much stayed the same. Meanwhile, Covid cases in Germany are increasing quickly, and a possible national lockdown looms.

With this in mind, it’s likely we’ll see driving levels fall again in the coming months.

What this tells us is that the situation can change drastically and rapidly, regardless of country. Increasing driving levels don’t necessarily point to consistent progress – a severe outbreak can quickly roll back any recovery.

While things are looking better for the auto industry, the situation needs to be monitored carefully and optimism held in check. We’re not out of the woods yet.

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