Brandwatch Bulletin #77: Taking Flight Again

The airline industry comes to life.

30 July 2021

It’s time for Friday’s Brandwatch Bulletin again, and today we’re looking at how the airline industry is recovering after its decimation at the hands of Covid-19.

Let’s get to it.

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Prepare for takeoff

You don’t need us to tell you the airline industry was badly affected by Covid-19. Border restrictions, consumer caution, and less money in people’s pockets have all played their part in reducing passenger numbers in their hundreds of millions.

But just how bad did things get, what are they like now, and what does the future hold? Using passenger and flight data from the United States and the United Kingdom, we can find out.

First, let’s take a look at passenger numbers going back to 2019, starting with the United States and data supplied by the Transportation Security Administration.

The chart shows a trend line that’ll look familiar to regular Brandwatch Bulletin readers. US flight passenger numbers shrunk to a fraction of normal levels after the pandemic was declared in March 2020, and only 3.33m passengers went through US airports in April that year, down 95% on the previous year.

Numbers quickly rose after, but came nowhere near pre-pandemic levels and they still aren’t back to ‘normal’ yet. By April 2021 some 42m passengers passed through US airports. That’s far healthier than last year, but still down 41% compared to 2019.

As we’ve gotten deeper into the year, things are looking much better. For the 1 – 27 July period, passenger numbers are down 20% in 2021 compared to 2019. Considering we’re still in a pandemic, the airline industry will be feeling at least some relief at these figures.

Now let’s jet across the pond for the UK data. This time we’re looking at data from EUROCONTROL that’s supplied by the ONS, telling us the number of flights to, from, and within the UK.

We see a similar picture to the US numbers. The pandemic dramatically cut the number of planes flying, with April 2020’s levels down 98% compared to the year before. Here, again, numbers rose quickly afterwards but, unlike in the US, this didn’t last.

Now as we come to the end of July 2021, flight levels are nowhere near their pre-pandemic numbers, although they are up 40% compared to 2020 for the 1 – 18 July period. Why is the UK airline industry lagging behind?

After 2020’s summer in which cases were relatively low and restrictions relatively few, the UK went into a second national lockdown at the start of November as infections rose sharply. A third lockdown followed in December.

These successive lockdowns, which included lots of stringent travel restrictions, curtailed the recovery of the UK airline industry. But this may not be the only reason. The differing usage of domestic flights between the UK and the US is also key.

In the US domestic flights are far more common, making up 77% of all flights in 2019. In the UK, domestic flights made up just 14% in the same year. This is no surprise considering the size of the UK makes driving or taking a train to cross the country the preferable option in most cases.

With domestic travel facing less restrictions in the US during the pandemic, and plenty of people still needing to travel around their country internally, this helps explain why the US industry is bouncing back quicker.

Simply put, domestic flights are saving the US airline industry. For now.

It’s important to point out that the summer months are when flights are at their peak, which means we can expect a seasonal downturn before long. The going might be good right now (for US airlines at least), but there are many long fall and winter months ahead.

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Stay safe,

The Brandwatch React team