Using Brandwatch Qriously, we surveyed 3,384 American adults from September 24 to September 27 2020. The above results come from the 2,273 respondents who say they are likely to vote or have already voted by mail in November’s election. (After weighting, this is 55.9% of the overall sample).
Biden leads with 49% of likely voters supporting him against Trump’s 38%, a margin of +11. A further 10% of voters say they’re undecided, meaning there are still many Americans yet to back a candidate.
As we do every week, we’re releasing our polling data along with our bulletin. If you want to have a dig around or do your own analysis, you can find our tables and the raw data here.
Throughout our polling, we’ve found a big chunk of likely voters who are yet to make up their minds. This week it was a tenth of likely voters, which could be enough to sway the election in either direction. We decided to get a bit more information from them.
We asked them which way they’re leaning, with the question “If you had to choose a candidate today, who would you vote for?”.
These undecided voters are split fairly evenly: 15% chose Trump, 12% chose Biden, and a further 10% chose a third party candidate or “None of the above”. This leaves 63% of undecided likely voters answering “I don’t know”, indicating they really aren’t leaning one way or another.
If we allocate the “leaning” voters to their respective candidates, the headline figures become: Biden 50%, Trump 40%, Jorgensen 1%, Hawkins 1%, none of the above 2%, and 7% still undecided.
Topics of the debate
The presidential debates are a big deal. Not only do they test the candidates’ mental acuity and allow them to present their platforms, they’re also widely watched. Our survey found that 50% of American adults planned on watching the debates in some form, including clips and highlights.
In other words, America is watching.
But with the first debate done and dusted, do these face-offs change minds?
We found that 27% of likely voters who planned to watch the debates, including clips and highlights, have been waiting for them to make a final decision. This shows how much is at stake – not only do candidates need to impress undecided voters, but also people who are likely to support them.
With the first debate’s topics announced in advance, we asked people which issues were most important to them (using the same wording as the moderator Chris Wallace).