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Published December 11th 2019

General Election 2019: Qriously Prediction, Plus Survey and Social Data Analysis

Brandwatch breaks down the survey and social data ahead of the 2019 General Election

The British public are about to head to the polling stations, but here at Qriously the results are already in.

The team polled a representative sample of 2,222 UK adults (over 18) via their smartphones and tablets.

Looking at answers from people who said they can vote, have made up their minds who to vote for, and told us they’re likely to go and vote, we have come up with the prediction below.

It looks like the Conservatives are in for a good day.

(Note: All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.)

Qriously is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. For more on our methodology, click here. The data is available to download here.

Delving deeper: Leaders and issues

Our survey collected a lot more data than just which parties people were planning to vote for.

For example, we were able to look at the issues those intending to vote cared about most.

While many dubbed this General Election ‘The Brexit Election,’ many people see the NHS as a larger issue for the country. In the chart below, you can also see the different priority levels Labour and Conservative voters place on issues like immigration and climate change.

We also studied perception of the party leaders, asking voters who would be the best leader for the country.

The results show how Jeremy Corbyn has failed to capture the confidence of his own party voters – a sizeable percentage of the Labour voters we questioned didn’t select him as the best leader.

Voters planning to support the Liberal Democrats are also not overly keen on the prospect of Corbyn as Prime Minister, which may make them less likely to make a last minute decision to vote tactically for Labour.

If you’re a journalist looking to cover our data, email react@brandwatch.com with any queries.

Breaking down social conversation

Brandwatch’s React team also gathered data on the General Election, looking specifically at social media conversations. Using Brandwatch Consumer Research, they crunched the social data over one month, from November 4 to December 4.

The Conservative party on social

Key topics:

  • Brexit
  • The NHS
  • Chief Rabbi Ephraim Mirvis’ criticism of Labour in The Sunday Times

Looking at gender-categorized authors, Conservative conversation online is 65% male, and 35% female.

The Labour party on social

 

Key topics:

  • Public services – the NHS, fire services, and education
  • Families
  • Public transport and infrastructure
  • Real living wage
  • Investment in STEM and farming.

Looking at gender-categorized authors, 64% of Labour interaction is from men online, compared to 36% from women.

The Liberal Democrats on social

Key topics:

  • Public services – particularly mental health investment
  • Climate crisis
  • Public infrastructure investment

Looking at gender-categorized authors, Liberal Democrat conversation is 31% female, 69% male.

The Green party on social

Key issues:

  • Climate crisis
  • Public service
  • Public infrastructure investment

Looking at gender-categorized authors, the Green party’s conversation online is 64% male, and 36% female.

The Brexit Party on social

Key issues:

  • Brexit
  • Public services – NHS and fire services
  • Business

Looking at gender-categorized authors, Brexit party conversation is 70% male and 30% female.

The SNP on social

Key issues:

  • Public services – education and the NHS
  • Stopping austerity
  • Stop to brexit & independence referendum two
  • Climate crisis

Looking at gender-categorized authors, conversation about the SNP is 62% male and 38% female.

The DUP on social

Key issues:

  • Public services
  • Climate crisis
  • Investment in public infrastructure

Looking at gender-categorized authors, the conversation about the DUP online is 70% male and 30% female.

Celebrity endorsements

Labour – traditionally seen as the party for the people, and the key holders for the youth vote – have fared extremely well with celebrity endorsements in this election.

Even though some of these people can’t vote in the UK (look out for the ‘*’ in the list), they’re keen to show their support.

Celebrity political party support

Labour Greens Lib dems Conservatives
Adjoa Andoh John Cleese Chris Martin Alan Sugar
Ahdaf Soueif Noel Gallagher Rachel Riley Bobby George
Aki Kaurismaki Katie Hopkins
AL Kennedy Roy Chubby Brown
Alex Andreou
Alexei Sayle
Amir Amirani
Andrew Fienstein
Ashley Walters
Asif Kapadia
Benjamin Zephaniah
Bill McKibben
Brian Eno
Caryl Churchill
Charlie Sloth
Chipo Chung
Clean Bandit
Daniel Craig
Danny Devito*
David Edgar
David Graeber (London School of Economics)
Des Freedman (Goldsmiths, University of London)
Dua Lipa
Esther Manito
Francesca Martinez
Gillian Slovo
Grime4Corbyn (a collective of grime artists)
Guy Garvey
Jane Godley
Jess Thom
Jocelyn Pook
Joelle Taylor
John Keane
Johnathan Pie
Justin Schlosberg (Birkbeck, University of London)
Kane 'Kano' Robinson
Kate Tempest
Ken Loach
Lily Allen
Little Mix
Lowkey
Marc Ruffalo*
Mark Rylance
Mark Thomas
Martin Rowson
Massive Attack
MIA
Michael Mansfield
Michael Mansfield QC
Michael Rosen
Michael Rosen
Mike Leigh
Naomi Klein Author,
Nicola Coughlan
Noam Chomsky*
Peter Kennard
Professor Green
Rob Delaney*
Robert Cohen
Robin Rimbaud (Scanner)
Robyn Slovo
Roger Waters
Ronan Bennet
Russel Kane
Sabrina Mahfouz
Shame
Steeve Coogan
Stephen Frears
Steve Gibbin
Stormzy
Thurston Moore (Sonic Youth)
Vivienne Westwood
Yanis Varoufakis
Public figures have only been included if they've said they support a party

Whether this high profile support will translate into votes is yet to be seen.

Survey methodology

Fieldwork dates: 5 – 8 December 2019

Interview method: Mobile Online

Population effectively sampled: All adults aged 18+ with access to an internet-enabled smartphone or tablet in the UK

Sampling method: A sample was selected from the general smartphone audience. Participants were invited to take part in the survey by showing them adverts in mobile apps. This method can be described as river sampling. The proportion of respondents recruited in a particular app is determined by the demographic of its users. This allows for the collection of representative samples.

Sample size: 2,222 adults aged 18+

Data weighting: Responses were weighted to the profile of all UK adults aged 18+. Data was weighted by age, gender, region (NUTS-1 level), constituency type (county/borough) and education level. Age, gender and region weights are based on data from mid-year population estimates by the Office of National Statistics. Education levels were based on a combination of the Labour Force Survey and 2011 UK Census. County/borough constituency type information was based on data from researchbriefings.parliament.uk.

If you’re a journalist looking to cover our data, email react@brandwatch.com with any queries.

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