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Marketing

Published August 16th 2013

Just How Deluded are Football Fans? Twitter’s Premier League Predictions

Non-footballing fans from around the world are about to wearily start moaning about football once again, as the new premier league season kicks off tomorrow.

We listened for all conversation in which predictions were made about the new season.

So unfortunately, that included searching for those using cringey language like ‘EPL’, as well as scanning for all the various idioms and linguistic nuances that fans might use to tweet their predictions.

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We thought it would be interesting to use Twitter to crowd-source the anticipated top seven club positions for next season.

Few believe Everton have what it takes, but perhaps surprisingly, not many think that Man City can repeat their amazing feat of 2011. Moyes’ stewardship of Man United inspires less positive predictions than Mourinho’s reentrance at Chelsea, while there is little to call between the North London clubs.

We once heard of someone who bet against Liverpool winning every single game of a premier season. His reasoning was that Liverpool fans are so devoted to their club, that they heavily bet in favour of it winning, thus skewing the odds for everyone else.

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Preying on this imbalance, the gentleman in question supposedly managed to gain money by the end of the season, as the small change in favour of odds manifested over 38 games.

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If this is true, then it will come as no surprise to see that, aside from a Mournho-led Chelsea, Liverpool are the club most widely predicted to win the league, albeit almost entirely by the club’s own fans.

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Almost half of predictions made since the start of July are anticipating a Chelsea victory, with the regime change at Manchester United not inspiring many to predict another season of success.

Here’s the premier league table, ranked by the volume of predictions for the title.

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So, is this the wisdom of crowds speaking, or is this merely the foolhardiness of tribalism via social media? Well, we’ll check in in nine month to assess just how good Tweeters are at guessing the champions.

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