The Most-Subscribed YouTubers and Channels
By Joshua BoydAug 4
Published July 24th 2018
Love Island, the trashiest and yet most wonderfully watchable show on British TV is coming to the end of its season.
As reluctant fans of the show, the Brandwatch React team thought they’d combine their love of data with their love of tasteless reality TV and try to predict the winner of LI 2018.
For this analysis we looked for couple names with “and” in between, as well as name variations. E.g. “Josh and Kaz” or “Kaz and Josh” or “Kazimir and Josh” or “Josh and Kazimir.” We searched for these in public posts relating to Love Island across social media.
So, let’s crack on and share what social thinks of the six remaining Love Island couples, in no particular order.
The longest standing couple in the villa got together on day one and, while they’ve had their fair share of rows, they’ve remained strong throughout the competition.
Jani have a pretty good social presence here. People are using the heart emoji most when talking about them, suggesting their relationship is really being taken seriously by potential voters. Meanwhile they have more mentions than any other couple and place in the top half when it comes to overall mention sentiment.
Perhaps the most dramatic couple in the group, Wegan are officially GF and BF and seem to be in it for the long run. Will their rocky beginning affect their popularity now they’re on track?
These two have a fairly good set of mentions, coming in 3rd place, and people are obviously loving their bants, with the laugh-cry emoji topping their list. They come in 4th for overall conversation sentiment around their couple which isn’t great. Bear in mind that this data looks back throughout the whole of July so far. When we broke down their net sentiment by week, it showed that positivity was growing around the couple. They could sneak in to the top spot yet.
Alex has had a difficult time in the villa, although let’s not pretend it hasn’t been down to his cringey demeanour. Latecomer Alexandra started to fall for him, but now Alex seems to be distancing himself. These social stats don’t spell a win for this couple.
Alex and Alex come in 4th when it comes to overall volume. Not good at all.
Their one redeeming factor is that their percentage of positively categorized mentions % is higher than any of the other couples. Clearly they have a fan base, and that’s perhaps the most shocking insight in this whole analysis.
Drama. With Georgia now out of the villa, Kaz and Josh are probably enjoying a less dramatic island experience. As another “official” couple in the villa, will their hard-won relationship be a winner in the eyes of the public?
This Jaz data is a real mixed bag. You’ve got a negative top emoji, a strong number of mentions and a pretty good sentiment rating. In many ways their journey within the villa has been similar to Wegan’s, but we’re not seeing the rise in sentiment levels that the other couple is experiencing here. It’ll be a close race between these two couples, we think.
This is a fairly new relationship compared to the other couples, but Laura and Paul seem to be getting on swimmingly. After all Laura’s heartbreak in the villa, will the public opt for her to take the prize with her new man, Paul?
We’re not massively confident. This couple has the second-least number of mentions and while their emoji and sentiment are good, they probably don’t have the needed volume to take them over the finish line.
In order to win at reality TV, we think you need to have a high percentage of positive mentions as well as a high volume of positive mentions.
Of course, reality TV and Love Island in particular is unpredictable – this is a guess based on the data we have now, with a week to go before the final.
New Laura and New Jack were relative latecomers to the island, having coupled up after Jack’s split with Old Laura (not that Laura is actually old). Since the public hasn’t had so much time to get to know this couple, they’ll have to make a good impression to stand a chance of winning.
To differentiate between new and old Lauras and Jacks here, we added the requirement that the mention had to include the word “new” in it along with the couple’s names. (e.g. “New Jack and Laura are so annoying, bruv.”)
When we originally wrote about Jack and Laura we said: “We’re sorry to say that this new couple is probably not going to make it far in this competition. They’ve got poor mention numbers, poor sentiment rates and the unamused emoji is their top one. They’re yet to turn heads on social.”
And, just saying, we were totally right. They were booted the day after we published.